May 8, 2024

Tuesday, the FDA granted an emergency use nod to Novavax Inc’s NVAX COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted (2023-2024 Components) (NVX-CoV2601) for lively immunization to stop COVID-19 in people aged 12 and older. 

B. Riley says at this time’s authorization comes well timed because the Avenue’s bearish notion of general COVID-19 vaccine demand. The tempo of COVID-19 hospitalizations and emergency room visits has not too long ago moderated after an preliminary spike in late August.

B. Riley says that rising consciousness among the many normal inhabitants to drive safety of extra susceptible elements of society might drive wider adoption.

Immediately’s availability of a non-mRNA protein-based various, with a label at parity with the mRNA vaccines (for the primary time), is more likely to strengthen the case for a similar (which wasn’t the case for the 2022-23 vaccine marketing campaign). 

NVAX administration has beforehand famous inner market analysis exhibiting that 30% of contributors favor a nonmRNA choice.

NVAX has additionally beforehand famous a $72.5/dose contracted worth with the CDC to allow entry by way of the “Bridge Entry” program to ~35k suppliers nationally that can provide uninsured folks entry to free boosters not less than by the tip of 2024.

The value of $130/dose shall be topic to insurance coverage/ pharmacy-level rebates and reductions, with the Inexpensive Care Act requiring insurance coverage to cowl ACIP-recommended vaccines with out cost-sharing. 

Recall that the decrease finish of the This fall steering vary assumes a U.S. gross sales estimate of $260 million (or 350k+ items assuming ten doses/carton), which is the restriction posed by mRNA sponsor(s) of 200 doses (or ~$20k). 

Value Motion: NVAX shares are down 6% at $7.21 on the final test Wednesday.

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